The Gates of Caras Galadhon

More from Andy Murray, this time - The gates of Caras Galadhon, home to Galadriel and all of the other fun-loving elves of Lothlorien.
One can play 'Find the differences' in here, the most obvious ones would be the lack of water (the space ended up populated by flower bushes) and statues at the stairs. The gate itself remained pretty close to the original design.


Original can be found here.

Moria Dwarf Design

Not too long ago I came across Andy Murray's weblog, where among other things I've stumbled upon the design for the dwarf from Mines of Moria loader. Andy doesn't spoil us with descriptions, writing only that this is Moria dwarf, made for marketing purposes.
His armor became a bit more goldish and his beard decorations a bit less elaborate, but there he is!



Original can be found here.

The numbers behind LIs - or how Turbine made our life hell.

There are many threads about the tediuos grind for T8 relics, but virtually none about the actual chance for decent legacies on legendary items (LIs). It has been shown that one T8 relic on average equals the deconstruction of less then 100 lvl2 items, and thus can be earned within a few days.

However, I've come to the conclusion that for some classes, the chance for getting a really good LI within a lifetime approaches zero. The LI system, promoted as character customization, is in essence a lottery with the delusion of customization, and with similar low chances like you favorite RL national lottery.

(Sidenote: Other classes automatically get their dream legacy (DPS), and don't need to care that much about other stuff. I guess for them it's at least 100-10k times easier to find a satisfying weapon...)

First, the basic numbers, taken from experience:
On identification of a LI, 2-4 legacies are completely randomly chosen from 15 possible legacies and 6 qualities (bronze-gold), giving a total of 90 possibilities. When reaching lvl 10, 30, and 50 you can "choose" one additional out of 2 random legacies. (I won't discuss upgrading one of two random legacies on lvl 20 and 40 by 2 tiers here; it doesn't matter much compared to other aspects.)

So what's up with this "customization" upon reforging? If you've been very, very lucky (see below) and got your nearly perfect LI with 4 initial legacies, you probably only need one special, additional legacy. The chances to get this are
up to lvl 10: 1-(10/11)*(9/10) = 2/11 = 18%
up to lvl 30: 4/11 = 36%
up to lvl 50: 6/11 = 54%.

However, we forgot quality. If you intend to max out this legacy and thus want it golden (5 or 6), chances are only
lvl 10: 1-(32/33)*(29/30) = approx. 2/33 = 6%
lvl 30: approx 13%
lvl 50: approx 22% (...and some 12% when heading for pure t6-gold)

Anyone having fun with spending 3 million xp on a blue or yellow item for a 20% chance of NOT being forced to throw it away in the end? I did it twice, failed twice, and lost 50 gold and 2 million xp twice.

That's why we need all of the crucial legacies right from the start. Let's calculate the chances of finding one (the maths are identical to a lottery):

3 legacies of random quality out of 15: 3!/(15*14*13) = 1/455 = 0.2% chance
(That's 500 tablets on average already; but of course we don't want bronze quality!)

3 T4/5/6 = 3 out of 30: 1/4060 = 0.02%
3 golden = 3 out of 45: 1/14190 = 0.007%
3 T6 = 3 out of 90....: 1/117480 = 8.5e-6

4 T4/5/6: 1/27405 = 0.004%
4 golden: 1/148,995 = 6.7e-6
4 T6....: 1/2,555,190 = 3.9e-7

Now for the Jackpot: On the US forum there's a screenie of a 2nd age runestone with exactly those 6 legacies everyone wants for dps, 5 of which are T6. Probability for this is approx.
3.9e-7 * 6% * 9% = 2e-9 = 1 to 475 million.
That's worse than the chance for the jackpot in most lotteries.

How many blue or yellow runestones are found each day per server? 10? 100?
If it's 100 per day, chances are 50% that no other one of similar quality will be found within the next 13000 years :P

Keep in mind that that jackpot-stone *could* have been better. And keep in mind that runekeepers also need a different stone for healing, and at least 2 different satchels.

Good luck people!

Notes:
1. Chances are somewhat better due to upgrading legacies, maybe by a factor 5.
2. On lvl50 one of the proposed legacies is always T6.
3. First age items tend to have primarily golden legacies.
4. I'm no pro, so correct me if I'm wrong somewhere...

Article by cthun
posted on LotRO Europe forums

I must say I was afraid to do the math alone, and - as it comes out - on good grounds. The numbers are horrendous.
Now, adding to all that depressing number, please keep in mind that the Devs are planning to give us a lvl cap rise this year already!
This means that even if you win the 1/145 million lottery now, your dream item will be less that useless within half a year (as their plan goes).
Muahaha. No, not funny. Makes me want to quit.

Someone on the forums suggested that maybe this insane grind is aimed to attract grinder asian gamer community... Even though a joke, it might hold a seed of truth... Why would Turbine care if they lost couple of thousands of Western players, if they could attract million of Asians?

Bird and Baby Inn

The Shire is probably the best and most rewarding place to explore for all and any Tolkien fans. A big, glittering Egg pops up for them right at the beggining of the journey - The Bird and Baby Inn. No, the name and the sign are not coincidence ;)

The Inklings was an Oxford writers' group which included J. R. R. Tolkien and C. S. Lewis. From 1939 to 1962 they met at the Eagle and Child Friday before lunch, to drink and talk, usually in an area at the back of the pub, which was then a private sitting room and is now known as the Rabbit Room. Contrary to popular impression (and also contrary to the plaque posted in the pub), the Inklings did not read their manuscripts to each other in the pub: these readings took place at evening meetings usually in Lewis's college rooms. The Inklings changed allegiance in 1962 by moving across St Giles' to the Lamb & Flag pub, but it is the Eagle and Child's Rabbit Room that attracts visitors.


The Sign
The pub's sign shows an eagle carrying a small child in a fold of cloth suspended from a claw, which was derived from the crest of the Earl of Derby. The image is said to refer to a story of a noble-born baby having been found in an eagle's nest. It is said to bear a resemblance to artistic representations of the abduction of Ganymede by Zeus in the guise of an eagle in Greek Mythology.

Alternative names
It is also known as the Bird and Baby. Other less common nicknames have included the "Bird and Brat", the "Bird and Bastard", the "Bustard and Bastard" and the "Fowl and Foetus".
(thank you, wikipedia)

The House of Celeborn

Lothlorien made me squee (and my computer cry and sweat)...
The House of Celeborn (as it is named in the game), or Galadriel's Court is simply... magical, even among other trees in Caras Galadon, it's details come together creating something truly special. Some of them are unique for this place only (or only here used in this, and not other, manner), something one should mark carefully as LotRO is mostly build with and from reusable elements.

The attention to detail in the design is astounding and most of those elements can be traced - though sometimes in modified form - in how the place looks like in game. Do you see the swirly way up the root of the great mallorn tree, appearing in pastel blue on the detail?
Yes, it's there as well as the minor branch somewhere at its end.
The circular platforms like giant steps are there too, and so are of course the huge structures just beneath the leaves of the mallorn... and the lanterns hanging down from too.
And if you look closely, you'll notice lanterns hanged on the gatelike-roots... and they are there too.

The place is stunning, but truth be told... it could have been done better. I love Caras Galadon, but every time I look at it's panorama I can't stop thinking that the platforms as they ended up in game don't look as organic and natural on the mallorns as they could be. Gorrem managed to achieve the symbiotic look, or at least I think so. Art department scored lower in here, but still... The place leaves me speachless.

Gorrem: Another rare environment piece of mine, done for Caras Galadon. This was my interpretation of Galadriel's courtroom from the exterior, which was described as a giant mallorn tree in the middle of a clearing supporting many flets, reachable only by ladder.




Original image can be found here.

Moroval Design

Some time ago I've discovered that one of art designers providing his work for the sake of LotRO has an account on deviantart. Not only that, he's the one that designed my all time favorite elven outfits Glathlírel and Narmeleth that always make me want to strip her... And for Galadriel too!
Basicly as it came out, he designed most of the elements of LotRO that I found the most stunning, so I decided to pay a tribute to him and catch his designs as they ended up in game (he himself is a blasphemer, playing the Jelly-WoW ;) )
Behold, the art of Gorrem you all love (but you just don't know that yet).

First on line, new in Moria Morroval designs I cought while in Morroval LI Instance.


Morroval Robber and...


Morroval Mistress

If you look closely, almost all details are there, even the droplet of blood running from Mistress' lips and the frivolous shoulder strap.
The only detail missing are, I think, Robber's glove-like straps.

Gorrem: Sometimes I need to make new versions of characters that are already in the game. These two are variants of the Morroval, which is a succubus. Instead of a screenshot paintover- Which usually turns out hideous- I decided to just paint them from scratch.
I believe the original concept was by Jeff Murchie.

Original image can be found here.

Did you know...

...that some dwarves have golden teeth?

I didn't and, I must confess, I was totally surprised when I came across this fashionable dwarf!